What is a CS2 case actually worth once you open it? We took every skin in all 42 cases in our database, priced each one in every wear and StatTrak version, and worked out the average value of a single opening. Then we compared that with what it costs to open: the case plus a $2.49 key. The result is the ranking below.
The short answer: no case pays for itself. The interesting part is how big the differences are, and why.
How we calculated it
For each case:
- Drop chances: Valve’s published odds: 79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.20% Classified, 0.64% Covert and 0.26% for a knife or gloves.
- Wear: each skin’s chance of every wear, based on its own float range.
- StatTrak: a 10% chance on everything except gloves.
- Prices: the lowest listed price for every item on 13 October 2026 from Skinport, Pricempire and market.csgo.com.
- Cost: the case price plus a $2.49 key.
Return = expected value ÷ cost. Fees are not included, so what you could actually sell for is lower still. The same numbers, updated daily, are on every case page in our case simulator.
The ten best cases by return
| Case | Cost to open | Expected value | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | $14.69 | $10.03 | 68.3% |
| eSports 2013 Winter Case | $13.20 | $8.92 | 67.6% |
| Glove Case | $11.45 | $7.18 | 62.7% |
| Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | $6.77 | $4.06 | 60.0% |
| Operation Wildfire Case | $5.03 | $2.85 | 56.6% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | $20.95 | $11.79 | 56.3% |
| Operation Hydra Case | $28.76 | $16.11 | 56.0% |
| Prisma Case | $3.56 | $1.95 | 54.7% |
| eSports 2014 Summer Case | $12.80 | $6.98 | 54.6% |
| Gamma Case | $5.30 | $2.84 | 53.6% |
Old cases dominate. Their skins stopped being produced years ago, so even their blue Mil-Specs sell for real money: in the CS:GO Weapon Case 3, the Mil-Spec tier alone is worth about $4.68 per opening.
The ten worst
| Case | Cost to open | Expected value | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dreams & Nightmares Case | $3.42 | $1.37 | 40.0% |
| Fever Case | $3.09 | $1.08 | 35.1% |
| Recoil Case | $2.73 | $0.94 | 34.4% |
| Clutch Case | $2.92 | $0.97 | 33.2% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case | $105.35 | $32.74 | 31.1% |
| Revolution Case | $2.67 | $0.82 | 30.8% |
| Fracture Case | $2.88 | $0.87 | 30.1% |
| eSports 2013 Case | $44.03 | $13.23 | 30.0% |
| Operation Bravo Case | $55.22 | $16.44 | 29.8% |
| Kilowatt Case | $2.60 | $0.74 | 28.6% |
Two different reasons put cases here:
- Cheap, current cases. The Kilowatt Case costs $0.11, so you pay almost only for the key, but its common skins are worth cents. The key alone is worth more than three times an average Kilowatt opening.
- Collector cases. The original CS:GO Weapon Case costs $102.86 before the key. Its skins are valuable, but the case itself has become a collectible, and opening it destroys that value.
The median case returned about 47%.
The knife barely moves the number
The gold slot feels like the reason to open a case, but at 0.26% it adds little to the average. In the Kilowatt Case the Kukri pool is worth about $0.19 per opening; in the Gamma Case the knife pool adds about $1.03. Even in the Glove Case and Operation Hydra, where the gloves add the most of any case at about $2.42 per opening, the overall return stays at 62.7% and 56.0%.
That is why “the case with the best knives” and “the case with the best return” are rarely the same case.
The weekly-drop cases
The five cases in the current weekly drop pool are all in the bottom half: Gallery 44.4%, Dreams & Nightmares 40.0%, Fever 35.1%, Revolution 30.8% and Kilowatt 28.6%. They are cheap to buy because so many drop every week, but their skins are cheap for the same reason. If you get one in your weekly drop, selling it beats buying a $2.49 key to open it, as our weekly drop guide explains.
What to take from this
- Every case loses on average; the question is how much.
- Some old, discontinued cases return the most per dollar, but the most collectible ones are among the worst to open.
- Cheap current cases return little, mostly because the $2.49 key is almost all of the cost.
- Prices move daily. Check the live expected value on a case’s simulator page before you open it, and remember that selling the result costs a market fee on top.
If you want the thrill without the loss, open cases for free in our case simulator. It uses the same odds and today’s prices.
