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CS2 Skin Rarity Explained: Every Tier, Color and Drop Rate

CS2 skin rarity from Consumer Grade to Contraband: what each color means, the case drop rate for every tier, and why StatTrak and Souvenir are not rarities.

By PrekZ··3 min read

AK-47 Redline on the BananaCases skin rarity guide cover

Every CS2 skin has a colored rarity, from the white of a Consumer Grade gun to the red of a Covert and the gold of a knife. The color tells you how often the skin drops, what it can be traded up into and roughly where it sits in price. Here is every tier, what the odds are in a case, and how rarity differs from StatTrak and Souvenir.

The weapon skin tiers

Rarity Color Where it comes from
Consumer Grade White / grey Collections and drops, never cases
Industrial Grade Light blue Collections and drops, never cases
Mil-Spec Blue Cases, collections, drops
Restricted Purple Cases, collections, drops
Classified Pink Cases, collections
Covert Red Cases, collections
Knives and gloves Gold Cases (the gold slot), Terminals, knife trade-ups
Contraband Orange Only the M4A4 | Howl

In the game, knives carry a star and the Covert label, and gloves are marked Extraordinary. On the case roll both show up as the gold slot, which is why players simply call them “golds”.

The odds in a case

Cases only contain the five top tiers. Valve’s published odds, as compiled by SteamDB:

Tier Chance per case About one in
Mil-Spec 79.92% 1.25 cases
Restricted 15.98% 6 cases
Classified 3.20% 31 cases
Covert 0.64% 156 cases
Knife or gloves 0.26% 385 cases

Each step up is roughly five times rarer than the one below. The odds are the same for every case: what changes is how many skins share each tier. Recent cases like the Fever Case have 7 Mil-Specs, 5 Restricted, 3 Classifieds and 2 Coverts, so one specific Covert is a 0.32% hit. Across the 42 cases in our case database there are 262 Mil-Spec, 193 Restricted, 123 Classified and 79 Covert skins. Our case odds guide goes deeper into what that means for the value of a case.

Why Contraband is special

Contraband exists because of one skin. The M4A4 | Howl was pulled from its case after Valve found its artwork had been copied, and the skins already in players’ inventories were relabeled Contraband. No new Howls can be unboxed, and it cannot be used in or produced by a trade-up. That fixed supply is why it stays one of the most expensive guns in the game.

Rarity and trade-ups

Rarity is also the ladder for trade-up contracts: ten skins of one rarity give one skin of the next. Consumer goes to Industrial, up through Classified to Covert. Covert is the top for normal contracts, but since October 2025 five Coverts can go into a knife trade-up for a knife or gloves.

Rarity is not quality

Two labels often get mixed up with rarity:

  • StatTrak adds a kill counter. About 10% of case drops are StatTrak, but the skin keeps its rarity: a StatTrak Covert is still Covert.
  • Souvenir skins come with tournament stickers from Major events. They are a version of the skin, not a tier, and a skin cannot be both StatTrak and Souvenir.

Wear (Factory New to Battle-Scarred) is separate again: it changes the look and price, never the rarity.

Other items have their own scales

Stickers, agents and other items use different names for their tiers. Stickers go High Grade (blue), Remarkable (purple), Exotic (pink) and Extraordinary (red), plus one Contraband sticker. Agents go Distinguished, Exceptional, Superior and Master. Do not compare them with weapon skins by color alone.

What rarity tells you about price

Rarity tells you how often a skin drops, not what it costs. Demand, wear and StatTrak move prices within every tier, and a popular skin can outprice a rarer one that nobody wants. Use rarity to understand how often something drops, and check the market for what it is worth. To see the tiers in action, open a few cases in our free case simulator.

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Written by

PrekZ · Founder & Editor

Just a guy who loves CS and a bit of gamba. PrekZ has been opening cases, chasing knives and trying out every new site for years, and somewhere along the way he got into building websites too. BananaCases is the result: the site he wished existed when he started.

All reviews and articles by PrekZ →

Questions people actually ask

What is the rarest skin rarity in CS2?+

Contraband, the orange tier, holds a single weapon skin: the M4A4 | Howl. Among items you can still unbox, knives and gloves are the rarest at 0.26% per case.

What are the CS2 rarity colors in order?+

Consumer Grade (white/grey), Industrial Grade (light blue), Mil-Spec (blue), Restricted (purple), Classified (pink), Covert (red), with knives and gloves in gold and Contraband in orange.

What are the odds for each rarity in a CS2 case?+

Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and knives or gloves 0.26%, according to the odds Valve published.

Is StatTrak a rarity?+

No. StatTrak and Souvenir are qualities, not rarities. A StatTrak AK-47 | Redline is still a Classified skin, it just has a kill counter.

blog.sources

  1. SteamDB: CS2 case opening odds explained
  2. ProSettings: CS2 skin rarity explained
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