Released September 2015
13 knives
Shadow Case Simulator
Open the Shadow Case for free with Valve's real odds. Every skin, every rare special item, today's prices and what one opening is worth.
- skins
- 16 skins
- knives
- 13 knives
- Cost to open
- Cost to open $3.96
- Average return
- Average return 52%
Shadow Case simulator
Free and no real money, with Valve's published odds
- Opened
- 0
- Spent
- $0.00
- Drops worth
- $0.00
- Profit
- $0.00
Just for fun: nothing here costs or pays real money, and the items aren't real.
Is the Shadow Case worth opening?
- Cost to open
- $3.96
- $1.47 case + $2.49 key
- Average drop value
- $2.06
- Average return
- 52%
The average covers every possible drop, using the odds and market prices from Skinport, Pricempire.com and market.csgo.com (11 October 2026). Most single openings return much less than the cost; a few rare drops pull the average up.
Most valuable drops
★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web$61.42–$491.40
★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened$80.00–$239.99
USP-S | Kill Confirmed$50.87–$233.61
M4A1-S | Golden Coil$44.18–$231.42
★ Shadow Daggers | Fade$134.93–$207.74
Shadow Case odds
The drop chances Valve has published for every case, per rarity and per item.
| Rarity | Chance | Items | Per item |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Knife | 0.26% | 13 | 0.02% |
| Covert | 0.64% | 2 | 0.32% |
| Classified | 3.2% | 3 | 1.07% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 4 | 4% |
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | 7 | 11.42% |
Weapon skins and knives can also drop as StatTrak™ (10% of drops; gloves never). On average one case in 385 gives a rare special item.
What's in the Shadow Case
Covert · 2 · 0.32% each
M4A1-S
Golden Coil
FN–BSStatTrak™$44.18–$231.42
USP-S
Kill Confirmed
FN–BSStatTrak™$50.87–$233.61
Classified · 3 · 1.07% each
AK-47
Frontside Misty
FN–BSStatTrak™$14.30–$116.30
G3SG1
Flux
FN–BSStatTrak™$6.34–$29.50
SSG 08
Big Iron
FN–BSStatTrak™$8.02–$26.93
Restricted · 4 · 4% each
Galil AR
Stone Cold
FN–BSStatTrak™$1.87–$20.18
M249
Nebula Crusader
FN–BSStatTrak™$0.99–$6.62
MP7
Special Delivery
FN–BSStatTrak™$1.01–$4.90
P250
Wingshot
FN–BSStatTrak™$1.12–$5.97
Mil-Spec · 7 · 11.42% each
Dual Berettas
Dualing Dragons
FN–BSStatTrak™$0.30–$3.15
FAMAS
Survivor Z
FN–BSStatTrak™$0.29–$2.90
Glock-18
Wraiths
FN–BSStatTrak™$0.40–$5.54
MAC-10
Rangeen
FN–BSStatTrak™$0.29–$0.82
MAG-7
Cobalt Core
FN–BSStatTrak™$0.37–$1.01
SCAR-20
Green Marine
FN–BSStatTrak™$0.19–$1.57
XM1014
Scumbria
FN–BSStatTrak™$0.18–$1.80
Shadow Case knives
The rare special pool: 13 finishes of Shadow Daggers. Together they share the 0.26% rare drop chance.
Shadow Daggers
Vanilla
$65.13
Shadow Daggers
Fade
$134.93–$207.74
Shadow Daggers
Crimson Web
$61.42–$491.40
Shadow Daggers
Slaughter
$89.74–$102.40
Shadow Daggers
Case Hardened
$80.00–$239.99
Shadow Daggers
Urban Masked
$42.36–$127.54
Shadow Daggers
Blue Steel
$49.93–$164.60
Shadow Daggers
Night
$43.88–$142.50
Shadow Daggers
Stained
$52.15–$195.33
Shadow Daggers
Forest DDPAT
$38.61–$139.75
Shadow Daggers
Boreal Forest
$39.92–$87.44
Shadow Daggers
Scorched
$38.90–$86.07
Shadow Daggers
Safari Mesh
$39.15–$151.80
Shadow Case FAQ
What are the odds of getting a knife from the Shadow Case?＋
The chance is 0.26%, so on average about one case in 385. Valve published these odds in 2017, and the same drop system is used for every case.
Which knives are in the Shadow Case?＋
Shadow Daggers (12). The number in brackets is how many finishes each one comes in.
How many skins are in the Shadow Case?＋
16 skins: 2 Covert, 3 Classified, 4 Restricted, 7 Mil-Spec. On top of those come 13 rare special items.
How much does it cost to open the Shadow Case?＋
About $3.96: $1.47 for the case and $2.49 for the key, at market prices on 11 October 2026.
Is the Shadow Case worth opening?＋
On average one opening gives items worth $2.06, which is 52% of the $3.96 it costs. Most openings give much less, and a few rare drops pull the average up. Try it for free in the simulator above first.
When was the Shadow Case released?＋
The Shadow Case was released in September 2015.
Can items from the Shadow Case be StatTrak™?＋
Yes. Weapon skins and knives can drop as StatTrak™, which happens on 10% of openings. Gloves never come as StatTrak™.
Contents from the game files (CSGO-API, MIT licence). Prices: Skinport, Pricempire.com and market.csgo.com, 11 October 2026. Odds: Valve's published case odds, estimates for capsules and souvenir packages. Play money only. Not affiliated with Valve. Prices for items nobody is selling right now are estimated from similar items.