Released January 2016
13 knives
Operation Wildfire Case Simulator
Open the Operation Wildfire Case for free with Valve's real odds. Every skin, every rare special item, today's prices and what one opening is worth.
- skins
- 16 skins
- knives
- 13 knives
- Cost to open
- Cost to open $5.12
- Average return
- Average return 56%
Operation Wildfire Case simulator
Free and no real money, with Valve's published odds
- Opened
- 0
- Spent
- $0.00
- Drops worth
- $0.00
- Profit
- $0.00
Just for fun: nothing here costs or pays real money, and the items aren't real.
Is the Operation Wildfire Case worth opening?
- Cost to open
- $5.12
- $2.63 case + $2.49 key
- Average drop value
- $2.89
- Average return
- 56%
The average covers every possible drop, using the odds and market prices from Skinport, Pricempire.com and market.csgo.com (11 October 2026). Most single openings return much less than the cost; a few rare drops pull the average up.
Most valuable drops
★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web$100.23–$5,420
★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh$44.76–$702.25
★ Bowie Knife | Night$61.13–$389.35
AK-47 | Fuel Injector$92.01–$361.33
★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened$120.75–$351.05
Operation Wildfire Case odds
The drop chances Valve has published for every case, per rarity and per item.
| Rarity | Chance | Items | Per item |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Knife | 0.26% | 13 | 0.02% |
| Covert | 0.64% | 2 | 0.32% |
| Classified | 3.2% | 3 | 1.07% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 5 | 3.2% |
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | 6 | 13.32% |
Weapon skins and knives can also drop as StatTrak™ (10% of drops; gloves never). On average one case in 385 gives a rare special item.
What's in the Operation Wildfire Case
Covert · 2 · 0.32% each
AK-47
Fuel Injector
FN–BSStatTrak™$92.01–$361.33
M4A4
The Battlestar
FN–BSStatTrak™$27.69–$74.59
Classified · 3 · 1.07% each
AWP
Elite Build
FN–BSStatTrak™$9.83–$66.10
Desert Eagle
Kumicho Dragon
FN–BSStatTrak™$15.63–$63.58
Nova
Hyper Beast
FN–BSStatTrak™$9.57–$23.35
Restricted · 5 · 3.2% each
FAMAS
Valence
FN–BSStatTrak™$2.49–$25.27
Five-SeveN
Triumvirate
FN–BSStatTrak™$1.69–$11.45
Glock-18
Royal Legion
FN–BSStatTrak™$1.80–$37.13
MAG-7
Praetorian
FN–WWStatTrak™$1.55–$5.03
MP7
Impire
FN–WWStatTrak™$1.72–$6.58
Mil-Spec · 6 · 13.32% each
Dual Berettas
Cartel
FN–BSStatTrak™$0.36–$3.97
MAC-10
Lapis Gator
FN–BSStatTrak™$0.70–$1.84
PP-Bizon
Photic Zone
FN–BSStatTrak™$0.41–$2.25
SSG 08
Necropos
FN–BSStatTrak™$0.32–$2.87
Tec-9
Jambiya
FN–BSStatTrak™$0.41–$5.13
USP-S
Lead Conduit
FN–BSStatTrak™$0.60–$11.14
Operation Wildfire Case knives
The rare special pool: 13 finishes of Bowie Knife. Together they share the 0.26% rare drop chance.
Bowie Knife
Vanilla
$79.69
Bowie Knife
Fade
$184.13–$227.44
Bowie Knife
Crimson Web
$100.23–$5,420
Bowie Knife
Slaughter
$159.06–$192.13
Bowie Knife
Case Hardened
$120.75–$351.05
Bowie Knife
Urban Masked
$53.92–$145.65
Bowie Knife
Blue Steel
$88.36–$259.67
Bowie Knife
Night
$61.13–$389.35
Bowie Knife
Stained
$63.81–$142.01
Bowie Knife
Forest DDPAT
$44.44–$124.61
Bowie Knife
Boreal Forest
$49.90–$144.44
Bowie Knife
Scorched
$50.44–$77.92
Bowie Knife
Safari Mesh
$44.76–$702.25
Operation Wildfire Case FAQ
What are the odds of getting a knife from the Operation Wildfire Case?＋
The chance is 0.26%, so on average about one case in 385. Valve published these odds in 2017, and the same drop system is used for every case.
Which knives are in the Operation Wildfire Case?＋
Bowie Knife (12). The number in brackets is how many finishes each one comes in.
How many skins are in the Operation Wildfire Case?＋
16 skins: 2 Covert, 3 Classified, 5 Restricted, 6 Mil-Spec. On top of those come 13 rare special items.
How much does it cost to open the Operation Wildfire Case?＋
About $5.12: $2.63 for the case and $2.49 for the key, at market prices on 11 October 2026.
Is the Operation Wildfire Case worth opening?＋
On average one opening gives items worth $2.89, which is 56% of the $5.12 it costs. Most openings give much less, and a few rare drops pull the average up. Try it for free in the simulator above first.
When was the Operation Wildfire Case released?＋
The Operation Wildfire Case was released in January 2016.
Can items from the Operation Wildfire Case be StatTrak™?＋
Yes. Weapon skins and knives can drop as StatTrak™, which happens on 10% of openings. Gloves never come as StatTrak™.
Contents from the game files (CSGO-API, MIT licence). Prices: Skinport, Pricempire.com and market.csgo.com, 11 October 2026. Odds: Valve's published case odds, estimates for capsules and souvenir packages. Play money only. Not affiliated with Valve. Prices for items nobody is selling right now are estimated from similar items.